With every passing day Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) finds itself sinking deeper into a quagmire. They do not know who is leaving or staying. MIKE MOTHIBI writes

The defection this week of the MP for Shoshong, Phillip Makgalemele to the splinter Botswana Movement for Democracy, even if not a surprise, is a blow for a party that is trying hard to project an impression that all is well. The resignation of any MP from BDP while a huge blight on the public relations exercise that the party has embarked upon translates, with equal measure, into a boost for BMD.
Makgalemele’s defection to BMD appears to be well timed. It comes at a time when the momentum of the defections from the BDP to the new party seemed to be subsiding. Worse still for the party, Makgalemele is one of the BDP leaders who despite his sympathies with the faction that gave birth to BMD being known has been less abrasive in his public condemnation of the way the party is being managed. He has, for instance, not been in the league of the likes of MP for Francistown West, Tshelang Masisi or the MP of Maun West Tawana Moremi in his openness about his disdain for the current style of management in the party.
But admittedly, since the tide towards BMD began, there has invariably been mutual suspicion within the BDP. Nobody is certain about who among the known Barata Phathi faction members who remain in the party can be trusted to stay put. Even with the assurances of loyalty to the party that some have been pressured to make, nobody appears to be certain.
This uncertainty is not helped by some of the Barata Phathi sympathisers’ open flirtation with BMD or its members. The party chairman, Daniel Kwelagobe was this week captured in a photograph in a local newspaper walking side by side with the treasurer of BMD, Samson Guma. This after DK missed what is termed “Star Rally” by the BDP at Guma’s constituency. When Ian Khama, BDP president, was busy telling people in Tsamaya about how Guma is “divisive” and “is a power-monger”, the party chairman, Kwelagobe was somewhere in the suburbs of Harare fraternising with him.
Another factor that fuels mutual suspicion within the BDP is the fact some Barata Phathi sympathisers attend BMD gatherings with religious regularity, some even wearing the colours of the new party.
This scenario has put BDP in a difficult position mostly after the party tactically retreated from the disciplinary actions that precipitated the formation of BMD. Now the BDP has tied its hands. The party cannot act against those Barata Phathi whose actions it deems seditious because doing so will only increase the flow as the party bleeds. The Barata Phathi sympathisers, who are ‘guilty’ of this, relish the powerlessness of the A-Team leadership that stole their positions in the Central Committee after the Kanye Congress.
DK is quoted in one local newspaper telling an inquisitive reporter that: “Ko Zimbabwe ke ne ke ile le Letebele le lame ka tsa matshelo a rona.”  Even in the BDP where the definition of the word ‘discipline’ may have assumed a rather extended meaning, taking a man to task for being seen with a political rival could be far fetched. In the same vein it must be near impossible to call someone to order for having attended a rival party’s rally even if such attendance may have some connotations. This situation must be annoying to the BDP leadership but there is very little they can do about them.
The party cannot even act against the perceived rabble-rousers within it who every body believes are just buying time before they decamp. The party may wish that they leave sooner rather than later so that it can count its losses but they cannot be pushed.
What is worse is that they cannot even be compelled to attend the “star rallies”.  For this reason, those who could make an impact if they were part of the ‘road-shows strategy’ that the party has adopted, conveniently absent themselves citing known social chores such as funerals and weddings. If they do attend, they are so brief in their speeches as to be convincing that things are okay in the party.
The party president himself, the ‘star’ in these rallies is by nature a person of few words. He is not a demagogue; the type that drives the crowd to frenzy with excellent oration. He is even challenged in the use of Setswana or any of the vernacular languages.
His circle of loyal supporters suffers the same limitations, if not worse. Most are new to politics and do not have that connection with the masses. Some are out rightly uninspiring even in speech. They are not the typical mobilisers of the masses. These qualities are with people like, Kwelagobe, an established veteran with a knack for the politicking that reaches the masses’ nerve. But he would rather go to Zimbabwe with Moyo ka “dilo tsa matshelo a bone,” than go and defend what is held even in some circle even within the party to be indefensible.
Ponatshego Kedikilwe, one credible and respected figure in the party, has kept himself busy running his ministry. PHK is more outspoken on issues of the ministry than those of the party. It is left to Ian Khama to fix what some believe he broke. And in this, he has to drag his rookies along who sometimes do not help his case. The developments in the BDP call for a change of strategy. Introspection. Maybe that is what the party needs. Kwelagobe suggested this to a party gathering earlier in the year. Makgalemele says the hope that the party would do that is what kept him behind when his colleagues decamped. The BDP leadership has not yet pronounced on the prospect of this soul-searching exercise if for anything, to at least stem the tide of impending defections. If they continue to deny that there is a problem, BDP’s demise could be closer than imagined.
Opposition are obviously excited by the developments in the BDP but mostly with finding a new potential ally in BMD. This weekend a number of them will be holding their congresses from which they are likely to emerge with new leadership.  Given BDP’s weakened position, the mood among the opposition politicians is that working together they party can beat it. BDP insists BMD has not dented its support base. A test awaits with a parliamentary by-election scheduled for Tonota North.